At present, the macro policies of all economies in

2022-08-23
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Current world economy: further differentiation of macroeconomic policies in various economies

current world economy: further differentiation of macroeconomic policies in various economies

China Construction machinery information

Guide: at present, the world economy is in adjustment, and there are some new characteristics. There are some new signs and problems in the reform of world economic governance. What are the impacts of these on China's economic development and policy adjustment? In 2010, the world economy in the economic thorn (1) the surface in contact with the sample adopts sticky soft rubber, etc; Stimulus plan and loose monetary policy

at present, the world economy is in the process of adjustment, and there are some new features. There are some new signs and problems in the reform of world economic governance. What are the impacts of these on China's economic development and policy adjustment

in 2010, supported by the economic stimulus plan and loose monetary policy, the world economy recovered strongly. In 2011, despite the short-term improvement of the international economic environment, the economic stimulus plans of various countries have basically ended, and the world economy, trade and industrial production are difficult to maintain the rebound growth in 2010, and the growth rate may slow down significantly; The risks of uncertainty caused by employment, deficit, debt, overcapacity, inflation, capital flows, etc. may continue to be released, and the macroeconomic policies of major economies may be further differentiated

the world economy has further deepened its adjustment, and the macroeconomic policies of major economies have been significantly differentiated.

(I) the recovery pace of developed economies is uneven, and macroeconomic policies have been differentiated. The U.S. economic recovery is better than expected, but industrial production has not yet recovered to the pre crisis level, capacity utilization is still at a low level, private consumption has limited support for the economy, and the unemployment rate remains high. In November, 2010, the Federal Reserve launched a new round of quantitative easing. Considering the three policy objectives of employment, inflation and economic growth, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will turn its monetary policy in the short term after the end of the new round of quantitative easing policy in 2011

the economy of the euro zone was dragged down by the sovereign debt crisis, and the recovery was weaker than that of the United States and Japan. In response to the sovereign debt crisis in Greece, Ireland and other countries, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have successively introduced conditional financial rescue plans. When the European Central Bank is difficult to tighten monetary policy, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Britain, France and other countries with high sovereign debt risk are forced to tighten fiscal deficits

Japan's economy rebounded rapidly, but it continues to face deflationary pressure. Japan has been plagued by deflation for a long time, with a high level of public debt. Domestic demand has a limited role in supporting the economy and is greatly affected by external markets. Japan's macroeconomic policy adjustment is unlikely to be earlier than that of the United States and the euro zone

(II) the economy of emerging market countries is slowing down, and inflationary pressure is generally large. In the first half of 2010, emerging market countries India and Brazil maintained strong growth and inflationary pressure increased; In the second half of the year, industrial production slowed down significantly and the growth rate slowed down. India has raised interest rates for six consecutive times in 2010 and again in January this year. Brazil has raised interest rates three times since April 2010, raising the policy interest rate from 8.75% to 10.75%; However, Brazil's inflation hit a new high in December and interest rates were raised again in January this year

global liquidity flooding has increased the uncertainty of the world economy

the central banks of the United States and Japan continue to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, the euro zone maintains a low interest rate policy, and the global money supply continues to exceed the demand of the real economy, resulting in liquidity flooding, the dollar index hit a new record low, pushing up the international commodity and asset prices of the servo system, making the stock market false recovery and fluctuations, More risks are transferred to emerging market countries

the risk of market uncertainty has increased, and the global stock market has differentiated. Influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar, the improvement of market confidence and the introduction of a new round of economic stimulus policies, the US stock market showed a volatile upward trend in 2010. The Dow Jones industrial index, the standard & Poor's 500 index and the NASDAQ index all rose by more than 10%. The European, German and British stock indexes were similar to the United States; However, troubled by sovereign debt risk, the stock indexes of Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and other countries showed a downward trend. Over the same period, the stock market indexes of Peru, Argentina, Thailand and Indonesia rose by more than 40%, Russia and South Korea by more than 20%, and India by more than 15%. The stock indexes of other major economies Japan and France contracted slightly, while Brazil expanded slightly

the world economy is recovering unevenly, and the macroeconomic policy orientation of major economies is significantly differentiated. The main developed economies have slow growth, high unemployment rate, lack of confidence in the market, and still need the support of loose fiscal and monetary policies in the short term. However, the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States and other developed economies has limited stimulating effect on the domestic economy, and the new money supply mainly flows to emerging market countries. Although the economic growth of major developing economies has slowed down, many countries need to tighten monetary policy due to the increasing inflationary pressure. At the same time, the concentration of global liquidity to developing countries with rapid growth has increased the difficulty of managing inflation in these countries, which not only increases the pressure of currency appreciation, but also increases the asset foam

the rebalancing of the world economy is becoming more difficult, and the transformation of the global governance model is a long-term process.

alleviating the imbalance of the world economy requires substantial adjustments in the consumption, savings and investment structures of major economies, and the core is the adjustment of advanced consumption and overdraft consumption behavior in developed countries such as the United States and Europe. The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 can be seen as a forced adjustment to the imbalance of the world economy. However, as the economy recovers, it is more difficult to rebalance the world economy

(I) the US economic structure has not been effectively adjusted, and there is little room for the private savings rate to rise further. As the core of the imbalance of the world economy, the U.S. economy, on the one hand, from the perspective of the proportion of consumer spending in the economy, the implementation of the economic stimulus plan and tax reduction policies has made the contraction of U.S. private consumption smaller than GDP. The policy to deal with the crisis has further increased the proportion of private consumption spending in GDP in the short term, rising to 70.8% in 2009 and still as high as 70.6% in the first three quarters of 2010. On the other hand, from the perspective of the personal savings rate in the United States, since the late 1990s, due to excessive consumption, the personal savings rate under the capital account (the proportion of savings in disposable income) has been close to zero, and the personal consumption under the national economic accounting account has been at a historically low level. Since 2007, with the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis, household wealth has shrunk significantly, and the personal savings rate has rebounded significantly. However, in the second half of 2009, with the economic recovery, the personal savings rate under the national economic accounting account remained at about 6%, and there is little room for further increase

(II) the adjustment of world economic imbalance is largely affected by the globalization strategy of transnational corporations. In the past, the world economic imbalance mainly existed among developed countries. The world economic imbalance before the outbreak of the financial crisis existed not only among developed countries, but also between developing and developed countries. In the final analysis, this new phenomenon is the result of the continuous expansion and profit seeking of transnational corporations in the world under the background of economic globalization. It is the combination of international capital and cheap elements of developing countries in the global industrial transfer and redistribution. Under the condition that the trend of globalization will not be reversed, this asymmetric distribution of capital, factors and markets is difficult to change the investment behavior of transnational corporations. At the same time, developed countries require developing countries to further open their markets, and the rapid economic growth and obvious cost advantages of major developing countries have further strengthened the investment behavior of transnational corporations. The UNCTAD global investment trend monitoring report in January 2011 estimated that 50% of global transnational direct investment after the financial crisis went to developing and transition economies, and this proportion rose to 53% in 2010

(III) the rebalancing of the world economy requires effective adjustment of the development mode and governance structure of all countries. Consumption pull is the basic mode of economic development in developed countries such as the United States. Generally speaking, it is also the most efficient under the condition of market economy. The economic and financial crisis caused by subprime mortgage is essentially a credit and debt crisis. The excessive consumption in the United States is largely due to the unrestrained excessive expansion of credit, which will inevitably lead to consumption overdraft and credit crisis. Therefore, for developed countries, the consumption driven development model is unlikely to be fundamentally adjusted, but the governance and supervision of credit consumption need to be strengthened, and the expansion of credit must be based on disposable income. For some developing countries, through the reform of the income distribution system and the construction of the social security system, to start consumption and gradually get rid of the mode of relying too much on investment and exports involves major adjustments in economic interests, which requires a lot of investment, and it is also a medium - and long-term process

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(IV) exchange rate policy adjustment is not the core of world economic rebalancing. The world economic imbalance is manifested in the imbalance of trade and investment between developed countries and between developing and developed countries. In terms of the development and evolution of imbalances among developed countries, Japan and Germany are in surplus in previous imbalances. The appreciation of the yen and the euro has not fundamentally improved the balance of payments of the United States to Japan and Germany, but may bring long-term risks of economic stagnation. From the perspective of the imbalance between China and the United States, foreign capital and foreign-funded enterprises with multinational companies as the main body are the main reasons for China's large surplus and rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves. Since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the RMB has been appreciating against the US dollar, but it has not significantly improved the balance of payments of all countries. However, the sharp adjustment of exchange rate may affect the adjustment of other domestic policies and increase the long-term uncertainty risk of the economy

(V) it is a long process to change the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar. The international monetary system with the US dollar as the main body determines that the United States will always be in the deficit side of the international current account balance of payments, and is the dominant deficit side. Its competitive advantage makes the deficit mainly come from the trade deficit in goods. The rapid growth of international trade and transnational investment brought about by economic globalization, as well as the internationalization of financial markets, need to constantly increase a large number of international monetary support. As the core reserve and settlement currency in the international monetary system, the US dollar objectively needs to maintain the corresponding balance of payments deficit while financing a large amount of globalization, which also makes the United States a net importer of global real wealth. In the past decade, with the overall rise of developing emerging market countries, the proportion of the United States in the world economy has declined. In this way, while the United States is financing the expanding globalization, its balance of payments situation is bound to deteriorate. Therefore, it is difficult to fundamentally change the imbalance of the world economy without changing the existing national monetary system with the US dollar as the main body. However, the existence of the international monetary system with the US dollar as the main body has its rationality, and it is difficult to make a major breakthrough in the reform of the global governance model in the short term

the external environment for China's economic development is more severe, and macroeconomic policy adjustment faces a dilemma

in 2011, the endogenous driving force of world economic growth is still insufficient, and private demand in developed economies is weak

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