The hottest Germany will introduce measures again

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Germany will introduce measures again to promote economic development involving printing machinery at the beginning of the new year, the German government is preparing to introduce the second plan and plan to stimulate economic growth. At present, it is the basic consensus of the ruling coalition party and the Social Democratic Party of the German government to go all out to deal with the financial crisis. After the first plan to stimulate the economy of 50billion euros was launched last year, it was decided to take out the second plan to invest in the development of the plastic processing machinery industry driven by the demand of Japan's automobile industry at the beginning of this year, with an amount of up to 40billion to 50billion euros, so as to pull the economy out of the trough as soon as possible

the growth rate of German economy was 3% in 2006 and 2.5% in 2007. In the first three quarters of 2008, the economy grew by 1.8% over the same period last year. However, in view of the sluggish economic operation in the fourth quarter, the annual economic growth is expected to be 1.7%. Judging from the current situation, the economic outlook of Germany is not so optimistic. It is expected that the economy will fall into zero growth or even negative growth this year

Germany's economic growth last year was mainly due to the growth in the first quarter. Due to climate warming, the construction industry and real estate industry in Germany started ahead of schedule, which led to the demand growth of steel, cement, chemical industry, transportation and other industries. Therefore, the total economic output increased by 1.4% at the level of higher growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 when the maximum width of each crack should be measured. But since the second quarter, the economy has declined. The total economic output in the second quarter and the third quarter shrank by 0.4% and 0. 5% respectively compared with the previous quarter@ Coherent experiment: 5%. In the third quarter, it increased by 1.3% over the same period last year. Due to the impact of the international financial crisis, Germany is not optimistic about the economic prospects in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. Economists are generally worried that Germany is likely to have four consecutive quarters of continuous economic decline

although the economy has experienced negative growth for two consecutive quarters, from the perspective of employment situation, it seems that the winter of the German economy has not yet arrived. At least before the end of October last year, the real economy has not been greatly affected by the international financial crisis. According to German official statistics, the unemployment rate in October 2008 was 7.2%, and the unemployed population was 2.997 million, the lowest record since 1992. At the beginning of 2005, the unemployed population was as high as more than 5million. However, this good employment situation is likely to change with the transformation of the international economic situation and the reduction of industrial orders

Germany's economy is highly dependent on exports, with about a quarter of jobs dependent on exports. In January and September last year, German exports increased by 6.2%, reaching 761billion euros. However, since October, the economic situation of the European Union and the United States, the two major destinations of German exports, has declined sharply, and German exports have also slowed down. German experts believe that the export growth rate of Germany is expected to be only 4.2% in 2008 and will decrease to 0.4% in 2009. According to the report of the German Federal Ministry of economy, industrial orders in September last year fell for the first time since 1990, a decrease of 0.8% compared with August. The German Federal Chamber of Commerce believes that Germany's industrial growth rate will be only half a percentage point this year

the automotive industry, which accounts for one seventh of German jobs, is the first industry in the real economy to suffer the impact of the international financial crisis. Not only the North American and European markets suffered serious losses, but also the sales of cars in Germany fell to a low point last year. Affected by this, the orders of the German steel industry are expected to plummet by one third in the fourth quarter of last year. Machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has always been regarded as the second largest pillar industry in Germany after the automotive industry. Although life is much better than that of the automobile industry, production is likely to stagnate this year. It is estimated that the turnover of German machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will increase by 5% last year, and the sales revenue will reach nearly 200billion euros, with an average operating rate of 91% for the whole year. Existing orders can ensure that employees will be busy on the production line for another half a year. However, due to the obvious decline in orders, the risk is approaching. At present, German enterprises producing textile, construction and printing machinery and equipment are already implementing austerity plans, and some have even announced substantial production cuts. In sharp contrast, those enterprises that produce environmental protection and energy-saving equipment are still operating at full capacity, thus making up for the losses of the whole industry caused by the reduction of production or orders of some companies. On November 19 last year, BASF AG, the world's largest chemical company, announced a decision to significantly reduce production due to declining demand. The company said that in addition to the temporary closure of 80 production lines, it would also reduce the production of the remaining 100 factories. This indicates that the German chemical industry is also facing great difficulties

German officials and major research institutions have different views on the impact of the international financial crisis on the economy, which can be roughly divided into relatively optimistic and relatively pessimistic groups. Relative optimists believe that the international financial crisis is likely to be V-shaped, that is, it will rebound soon after hitting the bottom in the middle of this year. Another school of thought believes that after entering the bottom, the economy may be in an L-shape, that is, it will stay at the bottom for a period of time, so the time to get out of the bottom is probably the end of this year or the beginning of 2010. The reason is that the impact of the international financial crisis on the real economy has not yet fully emerged

although German financial institutions were also involved in the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the impact was small. Only six commercial banks applied to the federal government for credit guarantee and state capital injection. The latest one is the State Bank of Baden Wuerttemberg, which suffered an operating loss of 2billion euros. On the whole, German financial institutions are stable. As the German federal government provided 400billion euros of credit guarantee to banks in the financial rescue plan, which solved the problem of loan reluctance among banks, there is no problem that enterprises in Germany are difficult to borrow from banks at present

as the largest economy of the European Union, it is no accident that Germany is brewing and will launch the second plan to stimulate economic growth at this time. Although the details of this plan have not been made public, according to the information disclosed within the German ruling coalition, it may include the following aspects: first, increase the construction of infrastructure and stimulate economic growth through investment. The second is to reduce the tax burden of enterprises and individuals, such as reducing the tax rate of medical and unemployment insurance. Third, the tax exemption of personal deposits will be increased to 8000 euros, so as to drive and expand residents' consumption. It should be mentioned that, together with the first economic revitalization plan launched by the German federal government last October, the investment amount of the two plans has reached 100billion euros

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